Egyptian Unrest: What does the future hold?

The Egyptian unrest is causing a lot of unrest in several parts of the world. The other Arab states are worried about the reactions of their own people to it. The Israelis are worried about the composition of the next Government and its attitude towards the Israeli state and Jews in general. The West, especially the United States is worried about losing a long time agent who served them well and perhaps, beyond expectations.

Being a peoples’ movement, it is difficult to predict how things would shape up there. Till things clear up at the ground level, everyone’s waiting with bated breath.
The smile pockets a rattling controversy.

Algeria rising.

After nearly two decades of civil strife, the North African country is waking up to its potential as an important economic power in the region. And slowly, if a bit unsteadily, is trying to regain its past economic status, and to surpass it. And it has succeeded to the extent that the World Bank now acknowledges it to be the second strongest economy in the Middle East.

The major source of revenues for Algeria continues to be oil and natural gas, and the country is the second largest exporter of gas in the world. The Government has made efforts at diversification in non-oil manufacturing, etc., but has met with limited success.

However, agriculture, the major economic activity prior to the discovery of oil and gas, continues to play an important role in the lives of the people, though efficiency and low production are said to have stunted the potential of this sector in playing a more vibrant role in giving momentum to economic activity.

The reforms initiated by the Government in recent years have started bearing fruit, with FDI picking up slowly. Further, improvements in the tax regime have contributed to an upbeat economic climate, though there are several that could do with a lot of improvement, and fine tuning. Especially, reforms in the agricultural sector are needed to regain its place as an exporter of food grains.

Other issues that have impacted adversely on the development process are said to be corruption and poor planning in projects. Corruption has denied legitimate and much needed benefits to important sections of the society, while poorly planned and managed projects have created an array of white elephants that are bleeding the economy.

That despite all these problems Algeria has apparently become the second strongest economy testifies to its strong fundamentals and its vast unrealized potential. If the ruling establishment plays its economic cards well, Algeria may yet emerge as a strong and stable economic power in the North African and the larger Middle Eastern area.

Opposition to Obama’s reform plans.

In the wake of the financial crisis in U.S.A. resulting in the failures of some of the biggest players in the financial sector, the regulatory authorities, especially the Federal Reserve Board was castigated for its incompetence. Ever since, several proposals were examined and debated on how best to regulate U.S. financial markets.

The major problem faced in this regard, of course, is to maintain the proper balance between laxity and over regulation, both of which are counter-productive. It was, perhaps, inevitable that the U.S. Government would err on the side of caution in this matter, given the widespread and disastrous effects of lax regulation in the past.

The major reforms proposed by the Administration are to tighten the supervision of the financial sector by investing more powers in the Fed Reserve, and setting up a new office of the National Bank Supervisor. This has led to a lot of heart burning and stiff opposition from several quarters, including other regulatory agencies. Whether the opposition to these proposals is a fear of losing turf, or aversion to “putting all your regulatory and supervisory eggs in one basket”, as reportedly remarked by the FDIC Chairperson, Shiela Bair, is anyone’s guess.

The fact of the matter, as reported by Reuters as well as Bloomberg, there is stiff opposition to certain important aspects of the reforms from the FDIC, the office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of the Thrift Supervision, et al.

The major opposition, of course, is to the overarching and overriding powers conferred on the Fed Reserve, which impliedly can be only at the cost of other regulatory agencies, who, perhaps, cannot be blamed more than the Fed Reserve for the present mess in the financial sector.

The coming days and weeks will determine how far the reforms would actually take effect and start bringing in the results expected of them.

Financial Reforms, Obama style.

This is the fortieth and the concluding in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.

Oversight of Credit Rating Agencies: The recent financial crisis has shown that, in spite of having all the necessary rules and regulations in place, it is still not possible to ensure they would be followed in letter and spirit. And even when they are sincerely implemented, they may not prevent a breakdown of the system on account of various factors.
Some of the major reasons behind the recent crisis were poor supervision and regulation, complex products that were beyond the comprehension of even sophisticated investors, and the misleading ratings afforded to such products by the Credit Rating Agencies. The current credit ratings system has been exposed very badly in the recent market collapse.
One of the major considerations in the decision of investors is the credit rating enjoyed by the institutions and their products. Higher the rating, better the product. Unfortunately, the ratings afforded to many of the products did not actually reflect their true strength, and misled investors to put their good money into them and end up losing in the bargain.
Hence this is one of the major concerns of authorities now. Reforming Credit Rating Agencies to make them more competent is a major objective of the reforms regime. Ratings agencies would henceforth be subject to more vigorous oversight.
Where ratings given by the CRAs are used for ratings purposes, it would be ensured that they are consistent with the IOSOCO Code of Fundamentals for CRAs. Another area where CRAs would be subject to robust oversight, is the area of conflicts of interests.
The SEC would continue to its oversight vigorously, including through public disclosures of performance measures, and methodologies and better classification of structured and other credit products.
The United States would lastly try to promote consistency in oversight laws applicable to CRAs across different jurisdictions.
Concluded.

Financial Reforms, Obama style.

This is the thirty ninth in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.

Improving Accounting Standards: It is a fact that some of the most complicated instruments in the financial world like the derivatives, etc, were one of the major causes of the market failure. Being complicated in nature, they also required complicated accounting procedures to be complied with. And this complexity in accounting procedures helped the firms escape proper scrutiny and accountability.
The financial crisis eventually mad the authorities sit up and take note of the kind of instruments circulating in the market, and the way they were accounted for.
Arising from this realization, the following recommendations have been made to improve accounting standards.
1) Accounting standards setters have been asked to define what is fair value accounting. To lay down the ground rules and norms relaing to this sujbect, and to come up with standards that are consistent with their definition. One of the key requirements in this regard, is to establish a new financial measurement standard that would replace the existing model and to reduce the complexity of accounting standards. Another major objective is to set new accounting standards to promote global consistency in impairment approaches.
2) Loan loss provisioning and related issues is another task set for the standard setters to look into, and come out with a new and improved version to take care of the issues thrown up by the economic crisis. Standard setters have been asked to examine various approaches, apart from the existing ones, such as a fair value model, expected loss model, and dynamic provisioning.
3) Development of a single set of high quality global accounting standards is a cherished goal in the new global financial accounting regime. Where accounting treatment is similar for similar instruments throughout the world, supervision and regulation becomes easy, and also helps eliminate scope for misuse of the system.
To be concluded.

Financial Reforms, Obama style.

This is the thirty eighth in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.

Introduction of better compensation packages: In general, compensation packages in the finance sector, especially the investment Banks, depended upon the profit pulled in by the whiz kids for their firm. This resulted in excessive risk taking. And when the risk materialized into reality, it led to the present crisis in the industry.
As such, compensation packages would henceforth be aligned to the long-term shareholder value and prudent risk-taking.
Money laundering, Terrorist financing etc: The United States is actively engaged in raising regulatory standards, within the U.S. as well as at the international level. The following areas would recieve special attention in the coming months and years- prudential supervision, tax information exchange, anti money-laundering, and terrorist financing.
Assessments and Peer reviews: The FSB has been engaged with international standard setters like the BCBS, International Association of Insurance Supervisors, the International Organization of Securities Commissions, and also the IMF to expand the use of assessments and peer reviews.
The existing level of compliance would be examined by building upon the existing applicable processes. The FSB is specially concerned with assessing compliance with international co-operation.
The International Co-operation Review Group of the FATF is charged with the responsibility of engaing with jurisdictions that don’t comply with the FATF guidelines, and to recommend counter measures in this regard.
Lack of international co-operation has been one of the major hurdles in implementing consistent laws to combat money laundering. Eventually, the U.S. and its international partners had to come up with tough measures and responses to bring the errant on board. Still a lot needs to be done.
To be concluded.

Financial Reforms, Obama sytle.

This is the thirty seventh in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.

Strengthening the FSB: The G-20 leaders had resolved to strengthen the FSB. As a first step, all the -20 members were included in the FSB. And the FSB was given the mandate for a new structure to enable it to promote global financial stability.
Prudential regulation: A global framework for promoting a stronger liquidity buffers at financial institutions, including cross-border ones is an avowed goal of the G-20. The FSB and BIS would jointly look for the development of macroprudential tools.
Expand scope of regulation: In the matter of regulation, higher standards would be applied to Tier I FHCs compared to other BHCs. The emphasis would be on the following aspects: stronger capital, liquidity and risk management standards. Systemically important financial institutions, markets, and instruments would be subject to commensurate level of regulation.
Foreign firms operating in the U.S. would be classified as Tier I FHCs where necessary, in line with similar treatment given to domestic companies. The U.S would treat foreign financial firms, in the matter of regulation, based on the regulatory regime in the home country of such firms.
The GLB Act lays down the ground rules for foreign firms to achieve the status of Tier I FHCs. In case of an American subsidiary of a foreign firm, it must be “well capitalized” and “well managed.” A foreign Bank that does not own or control an American one, but operates through a Branch must itself(Bank) be “well capitalized” and “well managed”. Where a foreign Bank operates through branches and subsidiary Banks, both the foreign parent and its U.S. subsidiary Bank must be “well capitalized” and “well managed”.
The Fed Reserve, in consultation with the Treasury, would determine the applicability of the above laws. Due regard would be given to the principle of “national treatment” and “equality of competitive opportunity”.
To be concluded.

Financial Reforms, Obama style.

This is the thirty sixth in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.

Internationally active financial firms: Some of the financial firms that fell in the recent crisis had a strong international presence, and consequently spread the contagion around, resulting in widespread panic and downslide in the markets.
This development has led to the thinking among the authorities that cross border firms needed to be properly supervized and regulated to prevent them from spreading panic and distress. Supervisory colleges have become active for the thirty most significant global financial institutions. More such colleges are in the offing.
Crisis prevention mechanism: One of the major reasons for the spread of the financial contagion throughout the western world was the interconnectedness of the financial markets through the medium of the big players. Consequently, when the big players went down, they took the market with them.
The United States and its international partners would work out a plan of action to spruce up the mechanism for cross-border resolution of financial firms by the following methods:
1) Resolution authorities would be empowered suitably with tools of intervention to prevent situations from going out of hand, and to initiate resolution procedures on an ongoing basis.
2) Information sharing mechanism between regulating authorities in different countries would be streamlined to facilitate joint and co-ordinated action whenever required.
3) Crisis management systems would be enhanced and finetuned to deal with failures of large cross-border firms.
4) To improve the effectiveness of the existing rules in respect of clearing and settlement of cross-border financial contracts and large value payments.
5) Cross-border crisis management is the latest mantra for containing the scourge of financial congation from spreading across borders and causing misery and distress all around.
To be concluded.

Financial Reforms, Obama style.

This is the thrity fifth in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.

Oversight of the global financial markets: Credit and other OTC derivatives were one of the major causes for the financial crisis. The complexity of the instruments left many of the even regular market players baffled. The fate of the lesser players, and the ordinary investors was even worse.
Lured by the promise of fast and high returns, countless investors burnt their butts in the conflagration that swept the markets subsequently.
Arising from this situation, the reforms package makes it a major issue to reform the markets and the unethical practices rampant therein, to bring about sanity and security to them. Towards this end, standardization of products and procedures would be vigorously implemented.
Another proposal is to set up a central clearing agency for derivatives, with special emphasis on clearing derivatives through central counterparties.
The United States has already created standardized contracts for the North American market, in line with the G-20 commitments. At the global level, several central counterparties have been established for clearing credit derivatives.
In so far as the OTC derivatives are concered, the reform proposals go beyond the G-20 commitments. International co-operation is seen as the key requirement to bring about stability to the markets, and ensure orderly conduct of the same.
The United States has resolved to work with all the concerned international players to raise the bar for the standard of OTC derivatives markets, to enhance integration of the American financial markets with the rest of the world; and to avoid any actions and reactions that could lead to market fragmentation with all its attendant consequences.
To be concluded.

Financial Reforms, Obama style.

This is the thirty fourth in a series of articles on the financial reforms sought to be initiated by the Obama Administration in U.S.A.
The international scene in Regulation and Regulatory co-operation:
Even though the interconnectedness of the financial markets is a fact of life, and crisis has a way of negotiating its way very fast through the maze of the markets, to engulf the whole system across the world, regulatory co-operation has not kept pace with this reality.
In order to address this urgent need, the United States would make efforts to obtain international consensus on four core issues namely, regulatory capital standards, oversight of global financial markets, supervision of internationally active markets, and crisis prevention and management.
Strengthening international capital framework: The Basel II accord was expected to address the shortcomings of the earlier accord, but as it turned out, the present crisis has exposed the fact that it is not so, and the second accord is also in need of urgent repair, to counter the myriad problems and issues thrown up by this crisis.
1) One area of concern that needs to be reworked and resolved is the regulatory capital framework for trading book and securitization exposures.
2) Secondly, the definition of regulatory capital would be strengthened to harmonize it across borders and systems to bring about consistency in both concept and practice.
3) Thirdly, ias per the recommendations of the G-20 leaders, a simple, transparent, non-model measure of leverage would be developed.
4) Fourthly, mitigation of procyclicality would be tackled in such a way as to require Banks to maintain capital buffers in good times to enable them to utilize the same in times of stress. This would improve their comfort level during crisis times and help prevent a meltdown in the market.
To be concluded.

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