Thai economy enters recovery phase.

The popular tourist destination of Thailand has suffered more than one knock to its economy in the recent past. The tsunami, followed by the global economic crisis, and now the H1N1 flu, affecting its economic mainstay, namely, tourism.

Now it appears that Thailand is slowly emerging out of the worst phase of the economic crisis, as figures released by the National Economic and Social Development Board would indicate. As is the case with other countries, supposedly out of recession, the major criterion applied to Thailand is also the fact of a slower contraction of its GDP in the last quarter. It is expected to contract only 3% at the end of the fiscal 2009.

Some of the factors that have helped the Thai economy grow are the improved economic conditions in other countries resulting in an upswing in tourist arrivals to a modest level. Other factors include increased consumer spending and confidence.

The Government stimulus program has also helped the economic revival. The new stimulus plan running into Thai Baht 1.40 trillion is expected to lay the ground for rapid economic development during the plan period of 2010 to 2012. This stimulus package is part of the “stronger Thai 2012 project” initiated by the Government to drive the Thai economy into the next century .

However, as the Thai economy is heavily dependent on tourism and exports, the upswing in the economic fortunes of other countries that contribute to Thailand’s economy is a necessity. Any delay in the improvement of recovery in these countries could set back Thailand’s economic plans correspondingly.

Overall, there are fairly strong signals of the Thai economy moving towards recovery. The longer this phase lasts, the stronger the Thai economy is likely to emerge. The question is whether this phase would last long enough for the Thai economy to get going once again.

Philippine economy doing well.

The Philippine economy is apparently holding its own against the eocnomic wildfires that have ravaged a large part of the global economy.

Fiscal 2009 is likely to see a growth of 2.50% in the GDP, according to media reports. The reason for this optimism stems from the fact that remittances from Philippinos working abroad have steadily increased in recent times. Side by side, exports have been climbing, especailly to China, which has been of great help to several countries in this crisis. Consumption has also shown a northward trajectory, and consumer spending is likely to move up further in the coming months.

The Government of Arroyo has come up with an ambitious plan to enter the 21st century in style through such initiatives like the development of renewable energy, promotion of green industries, Information Technology and communications, Science, Technology and innovation, etc. A tall order for a nation that is often derided for its penchant to export maids to all parts of the world. But the country is confident of forging ahead with its plans, and finding its place under the economic sun.

Presently, of vital concern to the Government, is the reduction in poverty levels, that is sought to be accomplished through a variety of initiatives. Unemployment is another concern that is occupying Government time and efforts.

The Philippines stands on the threshold of a new economic beginning, and much depends on how the Government handles the emerging situation, and of course, the Mindanao issue. Hopefully, the global economic situation improves to aid the country in its steady march towards a new economic horizon.

Jordan’s economy on a weak wicket.

One of the poorer countries in the Middle East, going by the standards of other nations like Kuwait, the UAE, etc., Jordan is nevertheless, rich in history with the ancient ruins of Petra drawing hundreds of thousands of tourists from all over the world every year.

This year though, the tourist arrivals have fallen, owing to the tough economic conditions in much of the Western world that sends a good part of the tourist traffic to Jordan. Coupled with this is the drastic fall in the offtake of Jordan’s goods and services from neighboring Iraq, that is under the occupation of its “good friend” America. And adding to the economic woes, is the fall in the remittances of Jordanians working overseas, as they return home, due to the downslide in the economic forturnes of their host countries in the Middle East.

Jordan is not an oil rich country, though it has a fairly developed petroleum refining industry. The major economic activities of the country relate to mining of phospate, potash, chemicals amd tourism. With imports at more than double its exports, the country suffers a trade imbalance that is difficult to bridge. Unemployment is a major problem for the country, and increasing with expatriates returning home in large numbers. High inflation and unemployment have led to a dangerous situation that may go out of hand, given the right provocation.

All in all, it appears to be a rough ride ahead for the Jordanian economy, though it can expect a liberal dose of Western, especially, American grants, as in the past, to provide a cushion against economic hardship.

The Jordanian Government, which essentially means the Monarch, has a delicate task on its hand, having to balance a potentially combustible potpourri of economic slowdown, increasing unemployment, a restive youth, and the perennial political instability in the region impacting on the domestic situation.

Egyptian economy faring well.

Belying fears of an economic slowdown, the ancient land of the Pharaos has proved its resilience in weathering the economic storm blowing throughout the world, just like it has been taking desert storms in its stride over the centuries.

Even though Egypt is expected to grow much slower this year than in fiscal 2008, when it recorded a highly commendable growth of 7%+, it is still considered a decent level of growth, given the ground realities on the global economic front. For the record, the country has clocked a growth in the GDP of around 4.70% in the current fiscal, upto the June quarter. Overall growth rate for 2009 is expected to be 5.50%.

The major part of the growth story of Egypt, is related to the Information Technology and Communications sector, a bit surprising that, and followed by the construction sector. That apart, domestic consumption has played a vital supporting role in boosting the economy. And the Banking sector is happily placed, without toxic assets to contend with, and has maintained a decent level of growth with its conservative lending and investment policies.

On the downside, all the major contributors of revenues to the country’s treasury viz, Suez Canal, Tourism, FDI, and overseas remittances, etc. were down, chopping off a few decimal points from the growth figures.

The Egyptian Government, on its part, is realistic enough to understand that, the global economic crisis is bound to have its effect on its economy, and is preparing to initiate a stimulus package, said to be in the range of USD 2.00 billion. The money is to go into a slew of infrastructure projects that is expected to have a beneficial effect on the other sectors, thereby pulling up the economy a few points.

Australian economy: Too early to cheer.

The Australian Treasuer, Mr. Wayne Swan was in a definitely congratulatory mood, when he is reported to have declared, that the Australian economy had registered a handsome growth and the highest among its developed peer nations. Is it true that the Australian economy is upbeat and ready to touch the stars?

Mr.Swan’s enthusiasm stems from the fact that while other developed economies have registered negative growth, his own country had recorded a modest growth of 0.60% in the second quarter of fiscal 2009. At other times, this rate of growth would be considered negligible. However, in these times of economic chaos, countries are clutching a all kinds of statistics to prove their point of economic growth and development, much like a drowning man clutches at straws to save himself.

A notable feature of Australia’s modest growth is the fact that it was accomplished solely on account of the stimulus package initiate by the Government pumping in USD 60.00 billion into the economy. There is widespread acceptance of the fact that but for the stimulus package, the economy would be in the wilderness, with the recession playing havoc with it.

Australia is a vast continent, groaning under the weight of natural resources, and a sparse population that has never put the economy to real strain. What has helped Australia avoid the recession, is a combination of exports and domestic demand.

Where Australia has taken a hit as a fallout of the recession, the rise in domestic demand, or consumer spending has restored the balance to a large extent in favor of the economy. However, the major headache of the country now is the increasing trade deficit, inspite of zooming exports to China, and that is occupying the attention of the economists now.

The stimulus package seems to have done the trick, at least for now. However, Australia is not really out of the woods and it may be too early to cheer.

Indonesian economy holds steady in turbulent economic times.

Indonesia, said to be the largest economy in South East Asia, is doing well going by not only the Government statistics, but also reports in the financial media, including Reuters, etc.

An above average growth rate of GDP of about 4.50%, more or less stable food prices, low inflation, falling exports as well as imports, boost in government and household spending-these are some of the important factors of the Indonesian economy, presently enjoying a decent growth of about 4.50%.

Indonesian economists have come in for some praise for their smart economic management, that has enabled Indonesia to avoid the flames of the economic conflagration that has seared a large part of the world economy. Among the tools of economic management that Indonesia has successfully deployed is interest rate management, which has been deftly brought down gradually over a period of time, resulting in good offtake of credit, boosting production and demand, and generally contributing to a positive development environment.

A calibrated response to developing economic situations has ensured a steady ride to the Indonesian economy. Avoiding fancy and risky economic and business models and practices, and offering aq level headed response to crisis situations, the country has maintained a low level of inflation at less than 3%, while notching up a decent growth in GDP of around 4.50%. The infrastructure sector, in particular, has scored high in growth levels, and in turn, stimulated the other sectors of the economy.

It needs to be said that economic management has been a highlight of this country in the recent times, and despite a fall in oil prices, which contributes handsomely to the country’s economy, this South East Asian tiger has returned consistent economic growth and contributed to the stability in the region, playing its rightful role.

If things continue in the same fashion, Indonesians may indeed celebrate a very happy Ramadan at the end of the month.

Malaysian economy on road to recovery.

In the days gone by, one would measure economic growth by the percentage points of actual growth recorded by the country’s GDP. In these days of global economic turmoil, however, a country’s economic growth is now measured by the reduction in the percentage points in the fall of the GDP! This holds good, both for the developing, as well as the developed world.

Going by the current practice in vogue, Malaysia seems to be on the road to economic recovery, as it expects a lesser percentage of contraction in its GDP for the second half of fiscal 2009. It is expected to record a contraction of only 4% to 5% in the year 2009 as a whole, and thereafter move towards real growth in the next few years.

Malaysia, a major exporter of oil and gas, is also a commodities-laden tourist destination that has set itself the target of becoming a developed country by the year 2020. But the fall in the prices of commodities, and oil may forward the target date for Malaysia’s ambition of becoming a developed country. It is to counter this possibility and to keep its date with its goal that the country, in spite of the global crisis, is coming out with a brand new economic model.

The key concerns in the new policy are expected to be increasing domestic consumption and promoting high income growth. But in view of the small population of the country, external trade is expected to play a crucial role in driving Malaysia’s ambitions towards developed nation status. That means an improvement in the overall global economic situation.

Malaysia has a robust manufacturing, as well as a services sector, and between the two, the country would like to see the latter contribute more to the economy, as is the global trend. Of particular concern is the country’s dependence on oil income that contributes the major chunk to the Government treasury. The Government is seriously engaged in finding ways and means to decrease this dependence.

Given the past sober record of the Malaysian Government in the area of economic management, one may expect the country’s economy to pick up speed in the coming months.

Norway flourishes amidst global economic chaos.

The calm and quiet of this Nordic nation belies an extremely efficient and thriving economy, that does not make much noise, but delivers on results. Norway is one of the handful of countries in the world to have escaped the ravages of the current economic crisis, mainly because of a common sense approach to economic management.

A thriving oil and natural gas industry that makes it the fifth largest exporter of oil in the world, followed by an equally robust fishing and shipping industry, that is second to none, has ensured a steady inflow of hard foreign exchange to the country, apart from contributing to domestic growth and development. That apart, Norway is a leading producer of aluminum. Other important industries include metalworking, pulp and paper, chemical products, etc.

With a national population that is made up of less than five million souls, Norway does not have to contend with the problems of making ends meet, with the kind of money it is making from its exports. In fact, its social security is said to be so liberal and generous that, many of its citizens are said to depend on it without sufficient reason, instead of working to earn their keep.

The dip in the oil prices did affect Norway to some extent. However, its past and consistently prudent economic management has come to its rescue and saved it from the worst effects of the global recession. Norway has intelligently invested its oil wealth in a national investment fund, managed by the State, that has yielded it handsome dividends over the years. This has created a strong buffer against falling revenues that has had little impact on the economic well-being of its citizens. Norway has also not seen any Bank failures as in the other Western countries, again because of prudence and common sense.

While one may argue that Norway, having a small population, and high income, could easily manage to deal with the current crisis, the fact remains that, it is the disciplined and common sense approach to economic management and development, that has ensured smooth sailing for the Norwegian economy in these turbulent economic waters.

Norway has set a worthy example in economic management that the rest of the world may well consider emulating.

Swedish economy emerging out of crisis.

The Scandinavian nation, famous for its Nobel prizes, and that had played an important role in world history, is slowly emerging out of an economic crisis, that had set it back several years.

The GDP growth of less than 1% that Sweden recorded in the second quarter of fiscal 2009, is said to be the lowest since the year 2003. Not yet completely out of the economic woods, Sweden nevertheless, is emerging slowly out of the crisis to find its feet again.

Among the major problems faced by the country is unemployment, with all its attendent consequences. With more people out of jobs, and on dole, lesser spending and comsumption, and an overall slow growth rate, the prospects for fast pacedeconmic development for the country in the next few years do not appear to be very encouraging. One is left wondering if any of the Nobel laureates in Economics could help out Sweden in this crisis, with a practicable plan of action that would not only restore economic growth to the nation, but also reduce unemployment that is a real bother now.

All the figures doled out by the Swedish authorities in support of their contention that the economy is on the mend, do not enthuse anyone, except the hard core optimist.

Sweden which has a decent expot income has suffered on this score on account of the global crisis, while it has had to import its requirements regardless. This has created an imbalance in its external trade, putting further strain on the economy.

At this point of time, it appears that Sweden is slowly and steadily(?) emerging out of the gloomy economic environment, but it still has to cover some distance before it is out of the dark economic tunnel.

Sudan: The black giant struggles to rise and shine.

Bilad as Sudan. The land of the Blacks. A vast country with hidden potential and promise of prosperity. Sudan is one of those countries whose potential remains untapped and unexploited because of persistent internal disturbances, and unwarranted external interference from interested quarters.

Sudan is one of the countries on the U.S. hit list as a “state sponsor of terrorism” (whatever that means!), that disqualifies it from accessing American in particular, and Western in general, technology and aid freely, and creates all sorts of hurdles in it’s path towards economic progress and prosperity.

Compared to it’s neighbors, Sudan has recorded a decent average growth of 7% to 8% in the last few years, and is expected to notch up % growth in the current fiscal according to official sources.

The major source of revenues for this African giant are from oil that contributes over 50% of its revenues, though livestock and related products are gaining in importance as a contributor to the national kitty. In fact, the Sudanese Government is keen to develop this sector in a big way to take advantage of the vast expanse of land available to it, to develop this activity.

Sudan recently drafted the International Monetary Fund to monitor and report on its economic performance and policies in order to achieve the objective of sustained economic growth, macro economic stability, and rebuilding foreign exchange reserves.

According to the IMF, the major reasons for a fall in Sudan’s revenues is the fall in the oil prices, and it’s penchant for intervention in the foreign exchange markets in order to conserve precious foreign exchange, among other things.

On its part, the Sudanese Government holds the sanctions regime against it to be mainly responsible for its economic troubles, though at the same time, it also points that this very fact has insulated Sudan from the worst effects of the global economic recession.

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