Egyptian Unrest: What does the future hold?

The Egyptian unrest is causing a lot of unrest in several parts of the world. The other Arab states are worried about the reactions of their own people to it. The Israelis are worried about the composition of the next Government and its attitude towards the Israeli state and Jews in general. The West, especially the United States is worried about losing a long time agent who served them well and perhaps, beyond expectations.

Being a peoples’ movement, it is difficult to predict how things would shape up there. Till things clear up at the ground level, everyone’s waiting with bated breath.
The smile pockets a rattling controversy.

Cote d’Ivoire economy: Making the right moves.

One of the few countries that appears to have learnt from its past mistakes, Cote d’Ivoire is slowly and steadily moving towrards realizing its potential for economic growth and development. Having recorded a modest growth in GDP of 1.7% in 2007, 2.3% in 2008, and 2.8% in 2009, the country is aiming at 4%+ growth for fiscal 2010.

Nearly 70% of the Ivorian population depends on Agriculture for their sustenance. Cote d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa. Other agricultural produce include coffee, palm oil, bananas, corn, rice, tapioca, cotton, sugar and rubber. Agriculture contributes roughly 28% of the country’s GDP. Among the industries are oil refining, textiles, fertilizers, foodstuffs and beverages. Industry contributes about 22% of the GDP.

According to the IMF, the Ivorian economy has shown resilience in the current global economic crisis, and has a lot of potential for further development. The Government of Cote d’Ivoire ha initiated an ambitious program that comprises the goals of reducing poverty, prudent fiscal management, reforms in the public spending arena, and co-operation with development partners.

Under this program, the Government will aggressively seek to reduce poverty that has steadily increased over the years. it will also aim to achieve a GDP growth of 4.2% on an average, to reduce inflation to 3%, and to bring down the budget deficit to 2% of the GDP.

Macro-economic stability and a sustainable debt position are two important objectives of this plan. Another important task the Government would undertake is to ensure efficient use of public finances and to bring about more transparency and accountability in the process. Lastly, to co-ordinate and co-operate with multilateral institutions like the IMF, in addressing the critical problems facing the country. For example, Cote d’Ivoire has been a beneficiary of the IMF’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative.

It may be said that Coted’Ivoire is making the right moves in the sphere of economic management, especially in regard to its pro-poor policies, and should reap a good harvest in the years to come.

Central African Republic economy: Many hurdles to cross.

The land-locked African nation, rich in minerals, especially diamonds, but poor in economic management, has enormous problems to overcome, in its march towards economic progress.

Subsistence agriculture provides succor to the majority of the people. With forestry providing a helping hand, 70% of the country’s population finds some form of livelihood that is suitable to a largely unskilled workforce, in the above two activities.

Tobacco, corn, millets, coffee, bananas and tapioca are the major agricultural produce. Timber and lumbering provide another source of employment for the people. Agriculture provides more than 55% inputs to the country’s GDP. The mining sector is gaining in importance. Diamonds, gold, uranium and other minerals are attracting investors. Presently, the diamond industry is the most developed mining activity and contributes to nearly 50% of the country’s export earnings.

Other industries include textiles, breweries, footwear, bicycle assembly, etc. The industrial sector is said to contribute nearly 20% of the GDP. The Central African Republic exports timber, coffee, cotton, and tobacco, and imports foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, machinery and equipment, etc.

The major problems facing the Central African Republic are poor infrastructure, especially transportation, economic mismanagement, and corruption. The country has been a beneficiary of several programs of the IMF and WB in the development of its agriculture and infrastructure.

The Government has also adopted the Central African Economic and Monetary Community Charter of Investment in order to conform to regional and international standards in investment and finance.

Central African Republic has to do a lot in terms of developing infrastructure, especially transportation and communication, and encouraging entrepreneurship to speed up the development process. Security, unemployment, poverty, and disease are the other major social issues that the Government has to address to create an overall favorable climate for the economic development of the country.

Eritrean economy: Looking to break out of the vicious circle.

Eritrea is a country weighed down by its painful legacy that prevents it from taking a bold and definitive step forward towards economic liberty, and social development, despite its potential.

Eritrea is a relatively young republic, having gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. But outstanding issues with its former rulers resulted in a bitter and costly war in 1998-2000 that saw large scale destruction of Eritrea’s infrastructure, and revenue generating activities, from which the country could not recover easily or soon.

Added to this, is the concentration of economic and political power in the hands of a single group that has prevented the growth and development of potentially profitable economic activities and entrepreneurship in the country.

Eritrea is one of the poorest countries in Africa, with subsistence agriculture providing a semblance of occupation and livelihood to the majority of the people. Agricultural produce from Eritrea includes corn, sorghum, lentils, tobacco, sisal etc. Livestock breeding and fishing provide an additional source of income to the people engaged in agriculture.

There is also some manufacturing activity related to food processing and beverages, cement, textiles, etc. The country exports cotton, fruit, vegetables, meat and hides, and imports foodstuffs, machinery, equipment, etc.

The recent interest of several international mining companies in exploiting the country’s mineral resources, mainly gold, zinc, and copper have created a buzz about the imminent boost to the economy. But several issues need to be resolved before full fledged mining activity gets underway.

One is the security issue, and the other, the issue of sanctions proposed against the country for its alleged negative role in the internal strife in Somalia. These issues and others will have a bearing on how far the country can go to achieve economic development in the near future.

Eritrea is looking to break out of the vicious circle created by its legacy, but wants to do that on its own terms.

Gambian economy: Making the right moves.

If one were to go by the verdict of the International Monetary Fund, then Gambia is going in the right direction economically speaking, and is expected to climb up the value chain of development and record 4.5% to5% growth in its GDP in 2009.

Two things that emerged from the IMF report on Gambia are that, the country has a high debt burden, and though its agricultural sector has performed better than expected in 2009, poor weather conditions in 2010 might hamper its further development.

Gambia is a Sub-Saharan African country whose 75% of population depends on agriculture, including livestock breeding for their livelihood. Agriculture contributes over 30% of the GDP, and the major produce includes, groundnuts, rice, millet, sorghum, corn, cassava, sesame, etc. Cattle, sheep, and goat rearing is an important activity allied to agriculture.

Industrial activity is restricted to small scale units engaged in processing of hides, fish, groundnuts, beverages, assembly of small agricultural machinery, etc. The country exports peanuts, cotton, fish, etc., and imports include foodstuffs, fuels, machinery, and other itmes. India, China, U.K., France, and Brazil, are the major trading partners of Gambia.

Among the major issues facing the Gambian economy are a heavy public debt, public expenditure, and lax tax administration. Poverty is widespread and so is illiteracy. The IMF had extended the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility to Gambia, and the country is said to have made good use of the same. In the same way, Gambia also gave a good account of itself in implementing the various economic programs under the WAMZ, the West African Monetary Zone.

Under President Jamme, the country has given special importance to promoting literacy and the President is personally in charge of the “Education For All” initiative. Gambia is apparently making the right moves towards economic development, and the results should be apparent in the coming years.

Somalian economy: Partly informal, partly illegal.

A country that has become notorious for the spate of piracy incidents around its coastline, Somalia has no proper Government worth the name. Indeed piracy has become a major industry and employs a large number of people and props up the coastal economy of the country.

Somalia is otherwise a agricultural economy with 40% of its GDP derived from this sector, and contributing over 60% of its foreign exchange revenues. Over 70% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture. Corn, sorghum, sugarcane, bananas, rice, fruit, etc., are the major agricultural products. Livestock breeding is an important activity adjunct to agriculture, and in fact contributes more than the crops. Fishing, until recently, a thriving activity has suffered heavily on account of piracy, that has endangered the lives and livelihoods of the fishing community.

The major part of the country’s GDP is contributed by the informal sector. The country exports livestock, hides, fish, bananas, etc., and imports manufactured goods, petroleum, foodstuffs, construction materials, etc. The U.A.E., Yemen, Oman, India, Kenya, etc are Somalia’s major trading partners.

Somalia is among the poorest countries of the world. Not favored with a proper Government for long, the country has drifted away from the comity of nations and become an object of fear and derision. The country needs to do something, and fast, to regain its place in the world community. On the other hand, the international community also has a responsibility to address the problems of Somalia, that would help overcome its present dangers and start taking the first steps towards regaining its rightful place in the world, starting with its neighbors.

A beginning, however small, has to be made and carried forward to its logical conclusion.

Niger economy: At the bottom of the heap.

One of the poorest countries of the world, that is also referred to as a fourth-world country, this land-locked Sub-Saharan country, however, has, the world’s largest deposits of the strategic and important Uranium ore, that every country in the world, from the United States to Libya is keen on acquiring, more for military than industrial use.

The Niger economy is sustained by Agriculture, Industry and Trade. Agriculture is the major occupation of the people that contributes roughly 40% of the GDP, and provides employment to 90% of the workforce. Among the agricultural produce from Niger are rice, cotton, sorghum, millets, cassava, etc. Animal husbandry is an important allied activity, with poultry, and livestock breeding an important part of it, providing employment to a large number of people.

The industrial sector is dominated by Uranium based activities. Uranium mining provides jobs to a large number of people, and makes the country strategically important, despite its poverty. Other industries include chemicals, cement, textiles, food-processing, etc. The industrial sector provides employment to 6% of the workforce, and contributes about 18% to the GDP.

Next in importance to the economy is the trade sector including the services, that contributes about 45% of the GDP, and provides employment to 5% of the workforce. The country exports cotton garments, uranium ore, livestock, onions, cowpeas,etc., while it imports petroleum products, foodstuffs, cereals, transportation equipment, etc.

Niger has also gone through the process of receiving aid from bilateral and multilateral institutions, including the Program for the Highly Indebted Poor Countries of the IMF and the World Bank. It is also a beneficiary of the Fund for Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility of the IMF.

Niger has to put its house in order and seriously focus on the issue of economic development to achieve a minimum acceptable level of economic and social development.

Burundi economy: In a tight spot.

The African nation of Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world, and recovering from a long drawn civil war that has claimed thousands of lives.

The country’s economy is predominantly, an agricultural one, and depends mainly on coffee and tea. International prices of these two commodities decide the direction in which the economy moves, and the comfort levels of its citizens. Other agricultural produce from Burundi includes sugar, corn, sorghum, bananas, etc. 90% of its workforce is engaged in agriculture, while industry provides employment to only 4%, and services to only 2% of the workforce. Livestock breeding is also an important economic activity.

The country exports mainly, coffee and tea. That apart, it also exports sugar, cotton, hides, etc. Among the industries are shoes, soap, food processing, etc. The country imports capital goods, foodstuffs, petroleum products, etc. Burundi’s major trading partners are France, Belgium, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Kenya, India, etc.

In fiscal 2009, Burundi expects to log in about 4.5% growth in its GDP. Inflation is a high 24%, and unemployment is very high, though official figures are not available for the current situation.

Burundi is heavily dependent on foreign aid to keep its eocnomy going, and to provide certain basic services to its citizens. AIDS is a major national problem and consumes precious resources diverted from developmental activities. Political stability is another major issue and has been so for several years on account of the civil war. With the end of the civil war, there is a slow improvement in the economic environment, encouraging development in various areas.

The country has been a beneficiary of the IMF’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. The program has been fairly successful in addressing the concerns of Burundi in its development process and has provided the impetus badly required in this sphere. However, infrastructural bottlenecks continue to hinder the country’s progress, and a lot needs to be done.

Benin economy: On the decline.

The West African nation of Benin, like many of its counterparts in the region, is dependant on a narrow base of economic activities or products to sustain its economy. And when developments take place affecting this narrow base of activities, or products, then there is a cascading effect on the entire economy.

After enjoying a modest growth rate for quite a few years till 2008, the Benin economy is expected to slow down by almost 50% in 2009 to 2.5%. This is mainly because of depressed commodity prices in the international markets. The major exports of Benin are cotton, crude oil, cocoa, palm products, etc. The international prices of cotton and crude oil having come down in recent years has severely affected the inflow of foreign exchange into the country

The other economic indicators of the nation are that inflation is currently running around 8%, and unemployment is quite high, though authentic figures are hard to come by. The IMF which is negotiating with Benin for an economic support program, had sent a mission to the country recently to assess the situation there.

According to them the Benin economy is facing a sever current account deficit that may touch 13% of the DGP mainly on account of the declining cotton prices which is the main export of the country. The IMF has recommended certain austerity measures to improve the fiscal position of Benin. Among them are limiting bonuses to civil servants and controlling public expenditure.

All in all, the future does not seem to be too bright for this economy, unless a favorable turn of events takes place in the international economic environment, that would have a ripple effect on the world at large, and Benin also might benefit from it.

Mauritanian economy: Making slow progress.

The Mauritanian economy that was expected to go places with the discovery of oil in 2006, did not live up to its expectations, because of the disappointing developments in the oil sector.

The position now is that the country has gone back to its original cash cows, namely iron ore, gold, copper, diamonds, etc., with iron ore leading the pack and bringing in 40% of its foreign exchange revenues. The other major industries are fishing, fish processing, oil production, etc. Agricultural products include rice, sorghum, millets, corn, etc. Livestock breeding is also a major activity.

The country exports iron ore, petroleum, gold, diamonds, copper, fish, etc, and imports machinery, equipment, capital goods, petroleum products, foodstuffs, consumer products, etc. The GDP growth rate of the economy is projected to be 3.5% in 2009, while inflation is around 7.3%. Unemployment is a major problem with 30% of the workforce out of work. Mauritania’s major trading partners are France, China, Spain, Japan, Belgium, etc.

Unemployment and poverty are a fixture of the Mauritanian economic landscape. The expected revenues from the oil industry did not materialize, compounding the problem. Mauritania has been the beneficiary of foreign aid for long, and even had its debt written down by the donors on account of its precarious financial position.

The Government, the first elected one in the country’s history, is trying to resolve outstanding issues and tackling the burden of poverty and unemployment. Structural reforms are being carried out slowly to improve the economic climate, in order to attract investment from various sources. Diversification of the economic activities away from the traditional ones like mining and fishing is being implemented slowly

In spite of the hurdles faced by the country, it can still improve the lot if its citizens through proper policies, and competent economic management.

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